Friday, December 07, 2012

Restructuring Jamaica for growth and development

I think it is patently clear to everyone that the policies for Jamaica's growth and development have not worked. Since the 1970s, the country has been generally on a downward trajectory. We have seen pockets of growth, but the general trend has been a decline in our economic and social fortunes.

Recently we have seen where the Jamaican dollar has been depreciating, and the latest fiscal numbers show that we are significantly behind on projections for revenue and the primary surplus targets. It is also important to understand that the last half of the fiscal year is always the most challenging for meeting revenue targets and for cost containment. This is because (i) the greater amounts of revenues are always targeted towards the last quarter, and (ii) the lack of accrual accounting for expenditure means that earlier commitments always show up in cash expenses towards the end of the fiscal year.

Jamaica’s balance of payments problem is dominated by the cost of food and oil, which now stands at almost US$88 a barrel.

Because of these situations, we are once again faced with the need to have an IMF agreement. Continuing our long courtship with the IMF since the late 1970s. This consistent need to be with the IMF should tell us that the policies we have pursued are just not working, and it is time for a shift. Jamaica faces structural deficiencies and until we tackle these head on, and solve them, then we will continue having to run to the IMF for macroeconomic stability support. Just like a child who runs to his parents every time he makes a bad decision and needs financial support.

So how do we address these structural deficiencies and put Jamaica on a path for growth and development. I deliberately did not say put us "back" on that path, because the truth is that even during the periods of growth since 1962, the fact is there was a failure to address these structural deficiencies, hence why we always fall back into economic and social malaise.

The first thing we need to do is understand the current challenges we face, and prioritize those risks to our development, just as any company would do. So what we must do is identify all the challenges and look at what value they can create if they are dealt with. In effect we need to perform a SWOT analysis of Jamaica. This is something I have written about and so will not get into any details.

My own view is if we were to perform that analysis then we would see that the main risk to Jamaica's economic and social development lie in three primary areas. The first is the balance of payments, which the problem is dominated by the cost of oil and food. The second is the cost of crime, which in my mind is the lack of law and order. And the third is the cost of the bureaucracy. My own analysis shows that if we were to just focus on policies to quickly eliminate these threats (risks) then we could easily add upwards of $100 billion to the GDP.

This is not to say that there are no other risks of importance, but as Jimmy Moss-Solomon said to me once, when your time or resources are limited just focus on the priority areas and execute well. If we were to focus on these three areas then we could start seeing significant economic and social positives within three to six months.

The current situation that faces us today, however is that we have a fiscal and balance of payments challenge. Today the fiscal challenge is more critical, although not what is going to solve the long term problem. The IMF programme of 2010, or any other one, as shown by the history, will not solve either the fiscal or other economic challenges. All it can do, as with the past programmes, is provide a temporary reprieve. The solution is with us.

One simple example comes to mind, and this speaks the mindset of the Jamaican people. When this administration came to power, various groups called for the removal of GCT on electricity, as it was a promise that was taking too long. My view at the time was the GCT should remain, and that the proceeds should be used to fund credits for "compliant" tax payers who chose to go with renewable energy solutions at home. The public would have none of that. Imagine if we had done that and we were able to get a 30 per cent reduction in electricity consumption as a result. We also would have had more work for people in energy solutions, and for each dollar saved it would have gone directly to consumption. Hence raising living standards.

So that single policy decision would have resulted in reducing our import bill by at least US$200 million ($18.4 billion), which would have gone into the pockets of consumers, and into the economy. It also would have increased GDP spending, as this is money in the hands of those with a greater propensity to spend. It would have increased the profits of companies and resulted in a lower demand for foreign exchange and could have spurred local production of renewable energy solutions.

There are other policy decisions that the public pressured governments into taking the wrong action, which could have resulted in GDP growth if it had gone the other way. The reality is that many times the policy actions we pressure governments to take result in our own demise, and then we end up blaming our governments for something we wanted them to do because it was in our short term interest.

One MP who I think has done good analysis and taken a practical decision on pension, and ultimately fiscal, reform is Mikael Phillips. Let's see what will play out with this.

We can still take those policy decisions and cause a paradigm shift in our economic and social fortunes if we want. It doesn't take anything more than the will to do it and the cost is negligible compared to the value added that will accrue.

With each day we do not take that action though, the options narrow. Today we are faced with a situation where we need to conclude the IMF agreement, but the fact is that we can do things that will significantly decrease our dependence on the agreement. It is only through restructuring the deficiencies in our economic and social framework that we will find a sustainable solution to economic and social development, just as Lee Quan Yew did in Singapore.

53 comments:

Anonymous said...

Its like you reaԁ my mind! You aρpear to knoω a lоt about this, like you wгоte thе boοκ in it ог somеthing.
I think that you can do with a fеw pіcѕ to drіve the meѕѕage hοme а littlе bit, but other than thаt, this is fantаstiс
blog. Α grеat reаd. Ι'll definitely be back.

My weblog Chemietoilette

Anonymous said...

Hmm iѕ anyone else ехperiencing ρroblеms with the imаges on thіs blog loading?
I'm trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it'ѕ thе blog.
Αny feеdback woulԁ be greаtly аppreciated.


Here іs my wеbрage Chemietoilette

Anonymous said...

There is definately a great deal to find out about this topic.
I love all of the points you have made.

My web page :: diets that work For women

Anonymous said...

Hey! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I really enjoy
reading your articles. Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that cover the same subjects?
Thanks a ton!

Feel free to surf to my webpage :: waist to hip ratio

Anonymous said...

Howdy! This is kind of off topic but I need some guidance from an established blog.
Is it very hard to set up your own blog? I'm not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I'm thinking about making my own
but I'm not sure where to begin. Do you have any tips or suggestions? Many thanks

Here is my site http://safedietplans.com

Anonymous said...

First of all I would like to say awesome blog! I had a quick question which I'd like to ask if you don't mind.

I was curious to find out how you center yourself and clear your thoughts prior to writing.
I have had a hard time clearing my thoughts in getting my thoughts out there.
I truly do enjoy writing however it just seems like
the first 10 to 15 minutes are generally lost just trying to figure out how
to begin. Any ideas or hints? Kudos!

Review my webpage ... how much should i weigh calculator

Anonymous said...

This is very interesting, You are a very skilled blogger.
I've joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your wonderful post. Also, I've shared your web site in
my social networks!

Feel free to surf to my weblog ... metabolic rate calculator

Anonymous said...

Greetings I am so glad I found your website, I
really found you by accident, while I was researching on Askjeeve for something else, Anyhow I
am here now and would just like to say thanks for a
remarkable post and a all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have
time to go through it all at the minute but I have
saved it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have
time I will be back to read much more, Please do keep up the fantastic jo.



My blog post diet plans for women to lose weight fast for free

Anonymous said...

This is a topic that's close to my heart... Take care! Exactly where are your contact details though?

Check out my weblog; diet that works

Anonymous said...

always i used to read smaller content that also
clear their motive, and that is also happening with this post which I am reading here.



Take a look at my homepage: waist height ratio

Anonymous said...

The USDA and other fоod safety eхpеrts reсоmmеnԁ leаving pizza
out at room temperаtuгe for nο more than tωo hours.

Cut pig-in-blаnketfreе from stгip anԁ
mаke 19 more pigs-in-blankets in same mаnnеr, aгrаngingthеm, sеаm sіdeѕ down, as they are made
on prepared baking sheet. (onlу becаuse they moaned about eating theiг veggies).


Ϻу webpage; http://www.purevolume.com/boys01mike/posts

Anonymous said...

This is my first time pay a quick visit at here
and i am truly happy to read everthing at alone place.


Here is my page; diet plans that work

Anonymous said...

Howdy! This is my first visit to your blog!
We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche.
Your blog provided us useful information to work on.
You have done a wonderful job!

Feel free to visit my website; diets that work

Anonymous said...

Hey! I could have sworn I've been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it's new
to me. Anyways, I'm definitely delighted I found it and I'll be
book-marking and checking back often!

Here is my site - diets that work fast for women

Anonymous said...

This pіece οf wrіting iѕ rеаlly a nісe οnе it helps nеw internеt viewerѕ, whο are
wiѕhing for blοggіng.

Here iѕ my homepаge augen lasern berlin

Anonymous said...

bookmarked!!, I like your web site!

Look at my blog post :: safe diets

Anonymous said...

Awesome blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring writers?
I'm planning to start my own website soon but I'm a little lost
on everything. Would you advise starting with a free platform
like Wordpress or go for a paid option? There are so
many options out there that I'm completely overwhelmed .. Any tips? Thanks a lot!

Here is my webpage ... best diet plan

Anonymous said...

Excellent blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What host are you using?
Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my website loaded up
as fast as yours lol

Here is my page - diets that work

Anonymous said...

Hi! I know this is kind of off-topic but I needed to
ask. Does operating a well-established blog such as yours
take a massive amount work? I am completely new to blogging
but I do write in my journal daily. I'd like to start a blog so I can share my personal experience and views online. Please let me know if you have any kind of suggestions or tips for brand new aspiring bloggers. Thankyou!

My webpage: How Much should i weigh for my age

Anonymous said...

I constantly spent my half an hour to read this weblog's articles or reviews daily along with a cup of coffee.

Check out my webpage; diet plans for women to lose weight

Anonymous said...

hey there and thank you for your info – I've certainly picked up something new from right here. I did however expertise a few technical points using this web site, as I experienced to reload the web site many times previous to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your hosting is OK? Not that I'm complaining,
but slow loading instances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and could damage your quality score if ads
and marketing with Adwords. Well I am adding this RSS to my
email and could look out for much more of your respective exciting content.
Ensure that you update this again soon.

My site :: calorie burn calculator

Anonymous said...

Hello! This post couldn't be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this write-up to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

My homepage: walking calculator

Anonymous said...

Appreciate this post. Will try it out.

Here is my web blog ... hip to waist ratio calculator

Anonymous said...

Good web site you have here.. It's hard to find good quality writing like yours nowadays. I honestly appreciate individuals like you! Take care!!

Here is my web blog :: raspberry Ketones Diet

Anonymous said...

wonderful post, very informative. I'm wondering why the opposite specialists of this sector don't realize
this. You must proceed your writing. I'm sure, you have a huge readers' base already!


my page :: Bmi Chart For Men

Anonymous said...

I usually do not drop a ton of comments, but i did a few searching
and wound up here "Restructuring Jamaica for growth and development".
And I actually do have 2 questions for you if you don't mind. Could it be only me or does it look as if like a few of the remarks come across like they are written by brain dead folks? :-P And, if you are writing at additional online social sites, I'd like to follow anything fresh you have to post.
Would you list of every one of all your public sites like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?



Here is my site ... waist to height ratio ranges

Anonymous said...

Hi there, You have done a fantastic job. I will certainly digg it and personally suggest to my friends.
I am confident they will be benefited from this website.

Feel free to surf to my site - bankruptcy in florida

Anonymous said...

Amazing! This blog looks just like my old one! It's on a completely different topic but it has pretty much the same page layout and design. Outstanding choice of colors!

Here is my page; diet plans

Anonymous said...

I was able to find good info from your content.


Also visit my web site Author's external home page...

Anonymous said...

Hello! This is my first visit to your blog! We are
a collection of volunteers and starting a new project
in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on.
You have done a wonderful job!

Also visit my weblog: http://72.46.232.244/wiki/index.php?title=Usuario:WileyStra

Anonymous said...

Hi there to all, the contents existing at this website are in fact amazing
for people knowledge, well, keep up the nice work fellows.


Look at my web page :: best way to lose weight fast

Anonymous said...

I am sure this piece of writing has touched all the internet viewers,
its really really good paragraph on building up new blog.


My homepage calculate bmr

Anonymous said...

Hello there, just became alert to your blog through Google,
and found that it's really informative. I am going to watch out for brussels. I will be grateful if you continue this in future. Lots of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

Have a look at my site :: http://dietgreencoffeereview.com

Anonymous said...

I am sure this piece of writing has touched all the internet
users, its really really nice paragraph on building up new website.


Here is my web-site Trimextrin

Anonymous said...

Superb, what a blog it is! This blog gives valuable information to us, keep it up.


my webpage: Kindergeburtstag Mannheim

Anonymous said...

This is the right web site for everyone who hopes to understand this topic.

You realize so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that I actually will need
to…HaHa). You definitely put a fresh spin on a topic which has been discussed for
ages. Excellent stuff, just great!

My homepage Buy Natural Cleanse

Anonymous said...

Hi there, I log on to your blogs like every week. Your story-telling style is awesome, keep
up the good work!

Also visit my blog post Saffron Extract Diet

Anonymous said...

Hi there! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an
established blog. Is it hard to set up your own blog?
I'm not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I'm thinking about making my
own but I'm not sure where to begin. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? With thanks

Also visit my blog post ... http://ultracelebdiet.org

Anonymous said...

Can you tell us more about this? I'd want to find out more details.

Feel free to visit my weblog raspberry ketone diet

Anonymous said...

Hi! I simply would like to offer you a huge thumbs up for the excellent info you've got here on this post. I'll be coming
back to your web site for more soon.

Here is my page diets that work fast

Anonymous said...

Hi! This post couldn't be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my good old room mate! He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this page to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

Have a look at my web blog; easy diets that work

Anonymous said...

Can I put up your post to my wordpress blog? I'll add a oneway link to your forum. That’s one really great post.

Here is my weblog - having trouble getting pregnant after a miscarriage

Anonymous said...

Great site you have got here.. It's hard to find high quality writing like yours nowadays. I really appreciate individuals like you! Take care!!

My site :: how much should i weigh

Anonymous said...

Hеy! Ι just wanted to ask іf уou eѵeг hаve any problems
wіth hackers? Μy last blog (wordpress) was hаcκeԁ and I ended uр losing
seveгal weeks of hard work due to no data backuρ.

Dο you have any ѕοlutiοns to stop hасkers?


Mу weblog: quartz engineered stone manufacturers

Anonymous said...

I do not even knоw how I finiѕhed up here, but I asѕumed
this post used to be good. Ι don't realize who you are however definitely you are going to a famous blogger should you are not already. Cheers!

Also visit my page ... car shipping

Anonymous said...

Fine way of describing, and pleasant paragraph to
obtain information about my presentation topic, which i am going to present in university.


Feel free to visit my site ... raspberry ketone ultra slim

Anonymous said...

Asking questions are really good thing if you are not understanding something completely, except this
piece of writing presents fastidious understanding
yet.

my weblog Slim Helper Diet Patches

Anonymous said...

Why visitors still uѕe tο гead newѕ papers when in
thіs tеchnological glоbe еѵеrything is presentеԁ οn net?


Mу web blog - coffee pure cleanse and colo cleanse pro

Anonymous said...

I'm gone to convey my little brother, that he should also pay a quick visit this weblog on regular basis to take updated from most recent news.

Look at my website Green coffee diet

raybanoutlet001 said...

nike free run
fitflops
nike outlet
michael kors handbags
ugg outlet
hugo boss suits
polo ralph lauren
michael kors purses
cheap ugg boots
ugg boots
2017.7.26

yanmaneee said...

curry 5 shoes
yeezy
kd 12 shoes
yeezy supply
supreme clothing
longchamp
yeezy 350
longchamp outlet
jordan shoes
moncler jacket

Unknown said...

e3k11c4c99 b5y38f6h55 d0r96j2c35 k4b67a0c90 g8r78x3j90 w7n03z9x75

Anonymous said...

cheap jordan
fear of god essentials
kd13
kyrie 9
off white outlet
kyrie 7
chrome hearts outlet
off white hoodie
bape clothing
supreme clothing