Friday, June 26, 2009

The IMF is a necessary stop gap

Much debate has taken place on whether or not Jamaica should approach the IMF for some facility to support the Balance of Payments challenge we face. Some have gone as far as to document their feeling for and against the IMF, including emotional responses to the past record of the IMF.

Being an accountant, my vision is dominated by numbers, and so I fail to see how any reference to the IMF's past indiscretions affects (1) its current situation; and (2) the fact that there is really no other source of funds. The fact is that Jamaica is even in a needier situation than other countries that were growing at better rates, but still needed to go to the IMF. Let us be clear about that. It makes no sense to die for lack of treatment because you don't like the doctor.

The choices we make

This emotional response to such matters is one reason why we are now being asked to write off US$4.2 million (J$374 million) in Cricket World Cup (CWC) losses. In fact, I remember the lack of foresight my friends used to say I had because I did not see the benefit that CWC would have to Jamaica. Based on their arguments it was supposed to have had monetary benefits for years to come and in fact the Trelawny multi-purpose stadium was going to be the launching pad of sports tourism.

In an article, I wrote in March 2007, titled "Cricket, aeroplanes, and poverty", I stated."On the day of the opening ceremony, at the expensive Trelawny multi-purpose stadium... In true Jamaican style, we showed the world that we know how to party. Two stories later, I saw an elderly teary-eyed lady saying that she fell down carrying water in a bucket to her home, because there was no running water. Still another report showed a man saying that his car had been damaged by the police whom he had to lend to chase thieves on many occasions, as they had no vehicle, and he was having difficulty being compensated."

What this indicates is that it is the choices that we make that determine what lies in our future. The probability is that if that lady is still alive she still may not have running water and the police force still has less than adequate capital equipment to fight crime. But we had a great party for two weeks.
Maybe if we had even gone with the stringent measures imposed by the IMF up to the 1990s we would have been better off today, as the truth is that we have really made a mess of our country without the IMF to blame anyway.

So we are at a decision point again and for some persons reason gives way to emotions, as it is easy for those who are not really feeling the economic pinch yet to say "let's suffer through it together".

What they need to understand is that some are already suffering badly, as illustrated by the thousands that converged for the 100 jobs offered by the fire services. And we shouldn't fool ourselves that the economic recovery is around the corner, as we were reminded by the recent World Bank report, which stated that the world economy will decline by 2.9 per cent instead of 1.7 per cent. That is 100 per cent worse than previously estimated, and really comes as no surprise to me as I had indicated that the recent hopeful signs we were seeing was probably nothing more than a short pause in a downward trend. I am not convinced, for example, that the US equity markets is in a longer-term up trend until the Dow Jones closes above 9,000.

But while we may go to the IMF, let us also not move from the emotion of extreme hate to extreme love, as we need to understand that the IMF is nothing more than a stop gap on our path of economic stagnation and decline. Borrowing money has never on its own, and never will, fix our economy.

It seemed as if this was the answer to all our problems because in the 1990s to 2007 we could have got money to borrow. So as long as one is able to borrow money at a faster rate than you have to pay it back then you will always be able to increase your consumption.

Debt's hypnotic quality

And this is the hypnotic quality of debt, until the reality of not being able to borrow anymore hits us.

Just as participants in the various unregulated investment schemes (UFOs), or even the regulated ones like Madoff, were in the heavenly bliss of high returns and chose to increase their consumption of luxury items rather than save the additional income they were so fortunate to have. I myself was hoping that the Jamaican schemes would have complied with the FSC and we would have created an investment edge just as we do with our athletics and music. This was not to be, and in the end the IMF estimates that they took some 12.5 per cent to 25 per cent of GDP out of the economy.

Just like that money from the UFOs, the IMF funds will only be a stop gap measure and will not address the fundamental problem of the inadequate economic structure - in simple terms, we spend way more than we earn. While we are benefiting from the IMF flows, it is necessary to continue the fundamental reform of our economic structure, as failure to do this will only see us in a more desperate situation at the end of the three to five-year period that we may get the IMF facility for. Unless we make a paradigm shift in our fundamental production and consumption relationships, we will face more suffering at the end of the IMF facility, and then the emotional ones amongst us will say, "see, I told you the IMF was the wrong way to go", not fully understanding that it would have been our own actions (or inactions) that would continue to cause our suffering.

As we go forward and the decision of the government unfolds about the IMF, we need to debate the issues in a very practical manner, and need to understand that the IMF will be nothing more than a stop gap measure and by itself will not be a solution to our problems.

The only things that can make a difference are the fiscal policies that are implemented, as without these we will only delay the onslaught of the infection of economic stagnation that has plagued this country since 1990.

We need to make a determination as to how we measure development. Do we measure development by the number of cars, phones, or foreign goods on the shelves? Or do we measure development by trade surpluses, higher literacy rates, lower crime levels, and improved productivity? The decisions we take will determine the path we set for ourselves and the outcome we eventually achieve.

And if, as persons have commented to me, we hang our hopes on the desired improvement in the global economy, that would be a mistake. The fact is that job losses continue in the developed economies we depend on, and even if the situation starts to stabilise, the road to recovery is going to be very long, implying much reduced consumer expenditure. It could be a five-year recovery period for the developed world.

I do believe, however, that a country like Jamaica has the capacity to significantly lessen the effect of the global crisis, as I have always maintained. But this depends on our fiscal policy actions, not new debt, whether through the IMF or capital markets. And it depends on all of us as Jamaicans.

86 comments:

Morpheus Rablings said...

Hi
I am no economist or CGA, however, I will concede that you made your point.
In all this with the IMF, this phrase keeps coming up
"A leopard never changes his spots"
The IMF has the rule "no pain, no gain" which it has ALWAYS been their motto. The IMF has NOT changed their mandate, and the developing countries have not seen the light to insist that the IMF re-evaluate their mission statement.
Let me put these question(s) to you:
-do you think the IMF will give Jamaica a favorable agreement?
-do you think that Jamaica will be required by the IMF to cut and burn (increase taxes, devalue currency, sell assets)?
-do you think that this time it will be any different from Jamaica's previous dealings with the IMF?
-will the involvement of the IMF lead to an increase in productivity?
-Where is the investment/development going to originate (local or foreign)?
No country can keep borrowing to reduce the debt, that is the heights of stupidity. Jamaica has been doing that for the past 18 years and now the price has to be paid.

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