Friday, May 16, 2003

Assessing the Causes of Recent Devaluations

The recent slide in the exchange rate is certainly cause for concern. In Jamaica, rapid devaluation of the currency is inevitably followed by periods of high inflation and significant decline in our standard of living, mainly because of our high levels of importation. It is even more worrying as the usually effective high interest rates do not seem to be having the desired impact. This necessitates that we find an alternate solution to the problem.

We may also conclude that too great an emphasis was placed on exchange rates and inflation, as these are merely symptoms of the underlying problems. The Government has used high interest rates successfully in the past to arrest the exchange rate and inflation by restricting the supply of the J$. Traditionally, we have seen an approximate 10 per cent per annum devaluation. What then has caused the recent freefall in the exchange rate?

Between January 1 and May 9, 2003 there has been an 18.74% devaluation of the J$ against the US$, moving from an exchange rate of 52.98 to 60.73. Over the same 2002 period the devaluation was 1.29%, moving from an exchange rate of 47.55 to 48.08. The 2002 trend was consistent with that of the late 1990’s to 2001. In fact, Table 1 shows that over the same period there was an accumulated shortfall between purchases and sales of US$51.15 Million and US$97.51 Million in 2003 and 2002 respectively. The numbers show that there has been an increased supply of US$ and a greater satisfaction of demand in 2003 over 2002.

Table 2 shows the downward trend of interest rates over the years. Up to the late 2002 all were hopeful that interest rates would have continued the downward trend and drive much needed investments. It was not until immediately prior to the 2003 budget that interest rates were substantially increased. This increase in rates would have typically caused some amount of stability in the exchange rate.

What then could have caused the current devaluations in the J$? The trade numbers (Table 3) show that the deficit has consistently worsened and in particular there has been an increasing decline in exports recently. At the same time imports have been increasing year over year since 2000. Despite this, the Government has maintained a relatively stable exchange rate. Despite exports falling we have managed to increase US$ supply through remittances from nationals overseas, an increasing informal economy, and the conversion of US$ to J$ to take advantage of the relatively higher interest rates, especially with the fall in interest rates in the United States.

The continued erosion of the trade deficit would have ultimately led to devaluations in the value of the J$ but does not explain the sharp depreciation. This suggests that there is a more fundamental problem that has been causing the sharp devaluation in the dollar since the start of 2003. The following factors have supported the decline:

1. Consistent high interest rates have created a significantly larger supply of Jamaican dollars in the market with no corresponding increases in goods or services. The result being more money chasing less goods and services, ultimately leading to inflationary pressures;
2. Investors have shifted from real investments to investments in paper to benefit from higher risk free returns, thereby restricting re-investment in productive ventures; and
3. The increasing importation of raw materials and declining exports is symptomatic of the higher import inputs in our products and services which have led to less value added in exports.

Despite these underlying problems, they should not be sufficient drivers of the current rapid devaluations. There are some who believe that our dollar is overvalued and this recent spate of devaluations is a process of “catch up”. While there may be some overvaluation of the dollar, the high interest rates should be enough to prevent swift devaluations, as we have not had any fundamental shift in the measures.

It is my opinion that the primary cause will not be found in the historical numbers but rather in the rational expectations of the economic players. The problem we have is one of confidence. Business persons are rational economic thinkers and act based on future expectations. The announcement by the Minister of Finance prior to the budget that the fiscal target would not be achieved, and the higher than expected debt, was the first blow to confidence. Subsequent to that nothing has been done to show that steps are being taken to fuel the growth of business. It is, therefore, clear that the first step for policy makers is to re-gain investor confidence by demonstrating a credible development path. If the future prospects are not promising then we will continue to have an exchange rate problem. Until we solve the confidence problem then we will continue to face behavioural challenges from the players.

Traders have argued with me that there is a shortage, but I would like to propose that this is not so. The significant sector demanding the US$ are dealers, who are demanding it to cover short positions. This is happening not because there is any real need for the US$ but rather because there is a lack of confidence in holding J$ positions. The apparent shortage arises because everyone wants the US$ at the same time and cannot get it at the desired rates.

Investors do not act on the basis of today but rather on future projections. As the Prime Minister has said, what we need is an understanding between all players in the economy so that we can move forward together. This means that there must be trust and support for each party to that “contract”. This cannot come from written understandings but must be played out in the consistent actions of each stakeholder. The market system will eventually determine the behaviour of individuals. We need to remember that economics is a social science that relies on the rational expectations and behaviour of people.

What is important is not where we are today but the direction in which we are moving, which has to be consistent progress. The Minister of Finance has the ability to gain the trust of the business community as he has done in the past. He must once again get us back on that path of economic growth and stability.


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Also νisіt my weblog ... prix des prothèses dentaires

Anonymous said...

Je suiѕ agéе de quaгante et un ans .
Je me nomme Anaïѕ.
Mon boulot: aѕѕistante RH . іl parait que je suis enjouéе.

Feel frеe to visit mу webѕite ...

Anonymous said...

Je suis jeunе de 27 années tаnt pis si
on ne le ԁit pas .
Ruby à votre service
Mon boulot: coiffeuse ... Mon naturel est plutôt timide.

Also viѕіt mу web sitе; avis hotel **

Anonymous said...

Je suis viеillе ԁe tгente-huit ans .

Mes рarеnts m'ont appellée Gay et j'aime bеaucoup сe рrénom.

je fаis un stаge de teсhnicienne
ԁ'analyses biomédicales . Je suis plutôt d'un naturel réѕeгvé.

Неre is my ωеb-site;
voyage avis destination

Anonymous said...


Ј'ai 26 ans .
Je porte le joli nom de Flordelis.
Mon travail illustratrice ... Si je suis parfois une vraie pomme, ce n'еst pаs ρour autant un défaut ?

Feel freе tο surf to mу web pаge
:: image web paris