What does economic and social change look like?

PERHAPS the question I get asked most frequently is about the economy and the prospects for it. One of the things I hate the most is when people engage you on the economy and ask about the prospects, but then don't give you a chance to answer and then go on to curse everyone who is living and dead, about the difficulties in the economy. They then go into the history of our economic mismanagement and then naturally their argument progresses to placing blame on one political party or another. All of this before I have answered the question, which always leads me to wonder why they don't call a talk show to vent rather than ask the question.

Many times, however, people will have doubts about where the economy is going, and whether we are seeing any benefits from the economic programme, as admittedly things are not easy. I will be the first to admit that the past few years, since 2009, have been very challenging for some businesses and individuals.

So when I say to them that I am optimistic about the changes being made and where I see the economy going, they are surprised. Some even go as far as to say that when analysts like us speak that way, we are being spin doctors for the government. However, when we say things are not going well, under both administrations, they cheer you on. It seems they just want to hear bad news all the time. I can only imagine how such an attitude affects one's perspective.

Hope

The truth, however, is that we need to develop the ability to recognise when there is hope and when there is not. That ability helps make a successful entrepreneur, one who might be having a difficult time in their business but can still see the forest and not just the trees.

Not everyone has this ability, but what everyone can do is try to develop an open mind to see other people's reasoning. It is this tolerance of opposing views that enables us to develop our own thoughts.

The question to be answered is: are we making progress under the current economic programme? My view is yes we are, and, as I have said many times before, this time we stand a better chance than under prior IMF programmes.

Why do I think so? Because for the first time we are making necessary legislative changes to accompany the fiscal changes. And, as various analysts have said many times in the past, the only way any fiscal or economic reform can work is if it is accompanied by structural changes. The legislative agenda has provided the opportunity to change the structural environment to create a more competitive economy. So I don't think that anyone would disagree that this programme includes the much needed structural reforms.

There is also no doubt that the economic environment is getting more competitive and more challenging for many businesses and individuals. The reason for this is that as a country we were used to operating in an economy with less competitiveness, with many people and businesses benefiting from contacts and government welfare. When those avenues lessened it inevitably became a more challenging environment.

The role of bodies like the PSOJ is to help with that transition to a more competitive economy, where the playing field is level for all and the bureaucracy and societal conditions do not stand in the way of innovation or economic activity.

Recognising positive change

What we must ensure, however, is that while we acknowledge the difficulties, and the things that still need to be improved, we must also be able to recognise when positive changes are happening and the direction we are moving in. In other words, how do we recognise when an economy is positively transforming even while challenges are there. For example, in the two years after 2008, the US economy was still going through significant challenges, and the instinctive reaction globally was to move to austerity measures as Europe did. But the US administration, however, stuck to its guns, even in the face of opposition, and the end result is that the US economy is now the locomotive of the recovery.

It is also going to be very important for us not to prevent our own development, in the face of the immediate challenges, by deviating from the path we are on. Many times in the past we have embarked on fiscal and economic reform programmes, and at the first sign of difficulties we start running fiscal deficits and restart the process of decline all over again. This is how we have ended up where we are today.

I recognise the difficulties we face but all the indicators are showing me that we are on the right path. These include (i) much lower inflation and interest rates, with the difference between US$ and J$ interest rates much reduced; (ii) reducing balance of payments deficit; (iii) a more stable exchange rate; (iv) near zero fiscal balances; and (v) increasing business and consumer confidence.

But even with this, we must still recognise the challenges we have and must address. These include bureaucracy, crime, and governance. What we must do is address these challenges constructively, deliberately, and together. In other words, let us criticise each other, as this is good for progress, but let us do so rationally and constructively.

So what we must be able to do is understand that any transformation, including economic and social, to a better model, will always cause dislocation. What we must do though is forge ahead with any plan we have properly thought out, and be able to see the long-term outcome while at the same time dealing with the challenges that occur on the way to that desired outcome.

How we think impacts our development

ONE of the things I encourage my staff to do is feel free to be critical of me as CEO of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ), which leads to having an environment where we can all be critical of each other.

We therefore have an open atmosphere where we can all speak to each other about; ideas for growth: what areas we think someone can improve in and, importantly, to recognise achievements. This creates an atmosphere where everyone feels comfortable about contributing to the progress of the organisation.

I see the same philosophy with many private sector leaders I have worked with -- such as Dennis Lalor and Don Wehby -- who always ask for feedback before making any comments whenever we discuss any issue. I find that the present PSOJ officers, led by William Mahfood, are also always interested in feedback. This philosophy is what makes for their own success in many respects, as the ability to listen, especially to suggestions for improvement, is probably one of the most important traits you will see in any successful leader.

In fact, I have found that many persons who have failed have an inability to constructively accept criticism. In other words, they usually end up "shooting down" the messenger and not listening to the message. This, of course, results in them only attracting "yes men" -- when nothing could be more damaging to that person's development.

While that criticism may come across as harsh, it may be necessary given the circumstances. I we want to develop, we have to learn to listen to the criticism, rather than just the form in which it is delivered. That is not to say that criticism must not be respectful and constructive, but even that is sometimes essential for overall development.

One instance I can think of when harsh criticism is necessary is when a group of us are cycling. There may be a group of 20 to 30 people all moving at upwards of 25 mph and just 6 to 12 inches behind each other's wheel. In those circumstances, we can understand when we do something wrong and the person behind us tells us two "choice words". While we might tell them one back, we realise that any error can cause serious physical damage. In such a situation no one is offended by what they are told.

Party colours

This inability to accept constructive criticism is one of the things that has held back the development of our country. The emails I receive about governance issues are always the same, no matter which political party is in power. What is amazing is that the same person can have two very different thought processes on the same issue depending solely on which party is in power. This is one of the primary roadblocks to our own development as a people and country.

It is strange that the politicians themselves are much more receptive to the constructive criticism than the people who follow them. And it is not that the politicians tell them to think that way. In fact, it is much easier and acceptable for me to sit down with the politicians and give them my own views -- which they accept -- than to have a discussion with some other people who are supposedly intelligent thinkers.

This says a lot about our level of development as a people.

I must admit, however, that there has been much improvement since the 1970s and 1980s, for example, when we used to kill each other over our individual political views. The irony is that many of those who would want to go back to that way of thinking do not understand how much people suffered during those times, as they were either not born yet or were not old enough. I was young during the 1970s, but I can remember those days very well, and so people like me will appreciate the need for the constructive dialogue that many have sacrificed for.

Vision 2030

If we are to develop as a country and to achieve the elements espoused in Vision 2030, then we can't focus only on infrastructural and economic development, but we must also change how we think and communicate with each other.

The economic reform programme is an example. My own view is that the economic agenda, as outlined by Minister Phillips, is certainly the direction that we want to move in. Fiscal and legislative reform is essential and is a necessary ingredient to form the basis of any economic and social development. It might not be sufficient, but I don't think that there can be any argument about the need for these reforms.

There is also a need for public sector transformation, skills training, and focusing on certain strategic investment decisions, such as the Agro Parks, KCT, highway development etc.

But even though all agree that there is a need for public sector transformation and efficiency, there is disagreement when initiatives under the reform are being undertaken, without any rational explanation for the disagreement or any alternative being offered. So the question is, what is the difference to someone agreeing that greater efficiency and better management is needed in the public sector and recognising that same need for management around ChickV and the Riverton Fire -- which both cost the country hundreds of millions of dollars?

The short answer is that the only difference is our inability to accept criticism constructively, which is really what places us at a disadvantage.

On the other hand, there are some of us who will also criticise any policy put in by a government that we do not support -- even though we would support it if put in place by a government that we support. And this disease seems to be contagious as it is also affecting the US now.

If we want to move forward and develop as a country, we must be able to accept good and bad criticisms, and look at the message not the messenger.

Why won't the private sector invest?

LAST year I sat on a panel to discuss the state of the economy. Someone in the audience correctly stated that much work was being done by the government to improve the business and economic landscape, but asked why the private sector will not invest if the government has done its part.

I told him that he was also a part of the private sector and suggested if he saw the opportunity to invest, then he should not want anyone to invest before he does, and that he should make the investment. And even if he has to secure a loan, he should take the risk or he could use his savings to do so. His response was that he would not risk his meagre savings in an investment, and he didn't want to borrow any money either.

I asked him who he referred to as the private sector, as I thought that everyone who is not a part of the public sector is in the private sector.

This illustrates the view that many persons have: The private sector is someone else, not me. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Consequently if you do not see an opportunity that would cause you to risk your own money, why do you expect that there is a private sector out there that will?

But the question persists. Why doesn't the private sector step up to the plate, now that the government has done so much to facilitate businesses? However, I would pose the question this way: Is this the right time for me to make an investment, and if my answer is yes, I would ask why no one else has made the investment; not to urge anyone else to invest before me but to assure myself that my own assessment is right. I don't think that I can ask someone to risk their own money when I am not willing to invest mine.

I do agree, and have said repeatedly, that the current reform programme is moving in the right direction, with the various fiscal and legislative adjustments being made. This has resulted in Jamaica moving up 27 places in the Doing Business Report; being named the best place in the Caribbean to do business; and having business and consumer confidence at yearly highs. I get a real feeling also that businesses are looking at even more investments, which will begin to show and pay off for the economy.

We must understand though that (i) mobilisation of capital is not easy, so even when there are positive changes capital just doesn't appear out of thin air; (ii) even though confidence has improved it doesn't mean that we are now more competitive for investments than other countries, as they are not just sitting down and waiting on us; and (iii) regaining enough confidence for action is a process, as we have had more than 40 years of mistrust between the private and public sectors. If you have had even one year of mistrust in a relationship and you are making an effort to improve it, does it go back to where it was overnight?

There are, of course, many things that erode trust and confidence. These include:

* Even though this year we have had a more proactive budget process, we must remember that every year the country (including businesses) holds its collective breath about what new taxes are coming -- removing the predictability of business. Any one tax measure can change a business model in an instant.

* Many persons who invested in government paper saw their cash flows and values affected by the first debt exchange in 2010, and subsequent ones. These actions changed the return and cost of capital overnight, even though unavoidable.

* We must also remember that we have just gone through a raft of legislative changes, which still continue, and it takes time for businesses to assimilate all the changes, which is the prudent thing to do before investing.

* The bureaucracy is still a significant issue, especially for those SMEs which cannot afford a courier service. It still consumes a lot of time to pay taxes, despite the improvements by TAJ. And attempts at the improvements have not been smooth as there have been reports of challenges with the new forms and new system. The bright spot is that TAJ's response has been very good, and they continue to be an example of good customer service in the public sector. On the downside we are told that the cost of exporting to New York from the Dominican Republic is less than the cost of getting the container on a ship here.

* Crime is still a problem, even though there have been improvements. Much of the crime is domestic violence but the perception of an unsafe environment still exists.

* Last year drought conditions cost farmers significant losses, while the NWC continues to have the majority of its water unaccounted for and the dams are full of silt. Also last year ChickV resulted in an estimated 13 million man hours lost, and approximately 0.5 per cent of GDP. Between the drought and ChickV the GDP lost was around one to 1.5 per cent.

* Now we have the Riverton fire, which has caused untold health problems, and many businesses have lost hundreds of millions in revenue and citizens have lost income. Businesses also have to pay employees wages despite losing income to a crisis that could have been avoided.

The fact, though, is that there have been significant investments over the past year, but long-term investing is not like buying and selling, which is what we have become accustomed to. It takes time to show returns.

So when we next wonder why the private sector is not stepping up to the plate and investing as it should, remember that the private sector is everyone outside of government, and if we do not feel like risking our own money in investments, then why do we ask others to do so? The other way the question can be asked is, why do we not buy the domestic product even when it is much more expensive than the import, or why do so many of us choose to migrate instead of staying and helping to build Jamaica?

ICAJ 50: the accountant’s role in development

THE Institute of Chartered Accountants of Jamaica (ICAJ), of which I am the current president, is celebrating 50 years of existence, having been formed in 1965. After reflecting on the importance of the accountancy profession, and considering where we are as a country today, I thought it would be good to highlight the importance of the accounting profession to Jamaica.

This is especially in light of a problem I see many SMEs facing; that of improperly prepared accounting records. This not only restricts their growth potential but also causes challenges with accessing credit. Even when they are able to access credit the cost of funds is higher because financial institutions cannot do a proper credit assessment.

Many business people do not see the importance of accountants, and records, until it is too late. So the emphasis is on producing and selling products, or services, but no emphasis is placed on record keeping, filing tax returns, and other proper governance practices. SMEs need to understand the importance of this for their own growth and development.

This is where the accountant plays a very important role in development of businesses, at the micro level, and ultimately economic and social development.

The first thing to understand is what to look for in an accountant. Just like when you are buying an appliance there are certain brands that are tried and proven, it is also important to ensure before you buy accounting services that you are getting good quality.

Many people use accountants who are not suitably qualified to prepare their records,. I have seen this time and time again. Usually the customer complains about the accountant's service after the fact. And many times we discover that the accountants are not members of the ICAJ, and so we have no jurisdiction over them.

This is where the ICAJ, and the Public Accountancy Board (PAB), come into play, as these two bodies regulate the accounting profession and by extension issue membership and practising certificates to their members. One can therefore be reasonably assured that the quality one gets with someone holding this certification is of an acceptable standard.

The PAB is the regulatory body for the profession in Jamaica, and is so empowered to do so by law. The ICAJ goes further by certifying accountants as chartered accountants. In other words, even if you have passed all the accounting exams in the world, you cannot legally hold yourself out to be a chartered accountant unless you are a member of the ICAJ. Anyone who does that is liable to prosecution.

The chartered accountant title gives assurance to the public that the accountant is of a minimum standard, as he must pass certain exams; have a certain number of years of experience; be recommended by two members; pass an ethics exam; and not have any integrity issues.

Earning the right to be called a chartered accountant is a rigorous process, as even after all of that you are interviewed by a panel if there is anything that needs specific answers. Acceptance is not automatic.

The 2008 global financial crisis, for example, was partially caused by a lack of proper accounting reporting, as the valuation of securities was not properly reported. Assuring that they had been may not have prevented the crisis, but it would have alerted people about the problem before it became so big. In Jamaica, we would have stood a better chance than the US because of our use and application of IFRS, unlike the US standards in place at the time.

If we are going to move Jamaica's SMEs forward, then we must understand the important role that properly qualified accountants play. Look at the capital markets and companies on the stock exchange. Many people purchase shares on the exchange as long-term investments for their retirement years. The quality of the audited financial statements is very important, as if the reports are inaccurate, then it can lead to a lot of heartache in the future when and if the inaccurate reports affect the viability of the company. This is why I always urge people that the first section to look at in a set of audited financial statements is the audit report -- because if it includes a qualification it may not make sense to rely on the rest of the report.

The ICAJ and PAB recognise the need to protect the users of financial statements, and have put in place practice monitoring (quality assurance) and other programmes to reduce the risk of inaccurate reports being fed to the public. But as always it is up to the "buyer to beware".

In other words, check the credentials of the accountants you do business with -- and whose reports you rely on. One way you can do that is by checking the listing of members on the ICAJ website, or simply calling the ICAJ.

As the ICAJ celebrates 50 years of existence, it is appropriate to highlight the important role of accountants in national development. But as with any product or service, the user must be fully aware of what is being purchased.

Indiscipline and lawlessness promote social inequality

LAST week I spoke about the lack of proper parenting skills being Jamaica's fundamental problem -- and the root cause of almost every challenge we face.

The reality, however, is that much of this parenting crisis comes from a lack of discipline and order in the society, in many instances promoted by people who should know better. In other words, many of our leaders, especially policymakers, are aware of the unethical and sometimes illegal social issues we face, but do little to address them. And so in many ways, ignoring these issues means that we are complicit in the consequences.

Just last week, Gary "Butch" Hendrickson commented on something I had really not reflected on before. Butch indicated that the violation of the Noise Abatement Act was actually one of the primary causes of social inequality.

At first I didn't understand what he meant, but he went on to explain that when a child in a depressed community has to deal with music being played at loud decibels way into wee hours, that child loses a good night's sleep and is not properly prepared for school the next day. In addition, the child has to get up early and hustle on public transportation to go to school, often without the benefit of a proper breakfast.

Contrast this to a child from a middle- or upper-income family, who may live away from night noises, or whose family can insulate him from them so he can get a good night's rest and wake up refreshed and ready to learn. In addition, that child can sleep longer because he will be driven to school and will also receive proper nourishment before leaving home.

In both cases, each child is born with the same physical and mental capacity, but because of different circumstances there will more than likely be different results. The child from the inner city may rise up against the odds, but will have to do so under more challenging conditions.

It is also important to point out that apart from lack of sleep and proper nutrition, the child from the lower-income family also faces the challenge of a daily assault on our less-than- adequate and often abusive transportation system. Not only must this child wake up one or two hours earlier, but must also fight with the disorganised system, and be pushed around and sometimes shouted at by transport operators who want to maximise their earnings in the midst of the indiscipline on our roads. We can also talk about the physical danger they face with the poor driving practices of many transport operators.

This lack of order also extends to our crime problem, as the child from the inner city is confronted more directly with many of the crimes being committed and interfaces directly with the outcome of crimes -- even if not committed against him. Again, the child from the middle or upper class is insulated from many of these crimes.

Many children today face issues of abuse -- physical (including sexual) and mental. This occurs at all levels of society, creating social inequality by giving the abused child a greater reason to fail in life.

This is one of my pet peeves, as for the life of me I cannot understand why the child authorities and court system find it so difficult to come to grips with child abuse. This should be the priority of the justice system as our failure to adequately address child abuse just creates more criminal deviants in the future. Nor can I understand our failure to hold accountable those parents who take to the streets to sell or beg with their young children at their side. This is in plain sight, but nothing is done about it.

I have personally reported (around twice) a woman I see on Sundays at a gas station seated with two or three young children begging for money and food. One of the children (a young lady) seems to have grown up and is now begging as well. Still nothing is done about it

So after reflecting on what Butch said, it came home to me. In just that one comment he said a whole lot about why many families face generational poverty and failure, and why there is a divide between income classes as it relates to probability for success.

In other words, our failure to impose discipline and structure on our society has promoted the persistence of social inequality, which in turn is at the heart of our labour productivity and ultimate economic issues. No passing of any IMF test or even a proper growth agenda can solve this problem sustainably.

If we are to solve this, we must first consider it a national crisis and it must be dealt with as such by the authorities.

Just as we have a major focus on murders, we must give the same attention to indiscipline and lawlessness. For example, the stop lights in Kingston are now are like Coronation Market with window wipers, vendors, peddlers, pedestrians crossing at will, and people just seeming to be hanging out. This seems like a low-hanging fruit. If the stop lights are cleaned up, that would be such a big boost to the perception of order -- instead of ignoring it and creating an industry that we soon say we can't get rid of because it is creating a livelihood for persons.

We must also get serious about imposing the Noise Abatement Act, and understand the social inequality and injustice we promote when we allow people to disturb others with noise (not just music) any time of the day. We must also get serious about prosecuting child abuse cases, and also issue harsh penalties to adults (and parents especially) who know about child abuse and do nothing about it.

We must also support the JUTC in its effort to clean up the transport system and not allow preaching, eating, playing music, or any other disturbance to passengers. Personally, I would like to see a proper school bus system. And we must deal with undisciplined drivers and other users of the roads -- such as pedestrians who ignore traffic signs, cyclists who ride on the wrong side of the road, or people who illegally park on Knutsford Boulevard (sometimes while in the car) in plain view of police.

This is not about passing new legislation, as that is already in place. It is about the will to enforce it and to realise that our culture of giving a man a "bligh" does nothing more than create indiscipline and lawlessness, which affects negatively the same man we don't want to "fight against". It is only when we start to do this that we can provide equal opportunities to all for true social and economic development. Each of us has some responsibility.

Understanding Jamaica's fundamental problem

This year we will have the opportunity for a one and a half month debate on the revenue and expenditure estimates before the start of the fiscal year. This is very good governance practice and the minister must be commended for this initiative. No doubt over this period there will be much talk about the fiscal accounts and the economic programme. Specifically there will be talk about taxation and the macroeconomic targets such as inflation and the exchange rate.

Going out to Hellshire on Ash Wednesday though, I was reminded that the fiscal accounts, macroeconomic targets, economic activity, and crime are nothing more than the symtoms of the underlying challenge we face as a country. In fact I would go further to say that given the progress we are making on the economuc front, that if we stick to our guns then the mjor problem we will face in a few years time will not be the economy or fiscal accounts. In fact it is very possible that we wll see a much more competitive economy.

The fundamental problem we face as a country is on the social front, as based on my observations, the primary problem we will be that a significant part of our workforce will not be equipped for a competitive economy. So that even if we are to see growth upwards of 3 percent consistently, there is still a part of our population that will be marginalized. In our 52 year history, the only time that we had actually tried to address the social issues were really in the 1970s, under Manley, and even at that time it was not done with the purpose of sustainable inclusion in the economy for all but rather fixing certain social challenges faced coming our of colonialism.

I was reminded of this when i went out to Hellshire, as I think the people out there are a representation of the ordinary Jamaicans, inclusive esepcially of young Jamaicans. And this culture, although I saw it at Hellshire, does not only reside with the persons there but permeates even our work environment. So the truth is that we could possibly see economic growth with little or no inclusion of some of the population because many persons do ot possess either the skills, work ethics, or social behaviour required to compete internationally. And the end product or service consists significantly of labour or thought input, which reflect the underlying problem of our economic challenge. That of labour productivity.

When one thinks about the crimes being committed (gang related and domestic in particular) it sends us a lear message that something is wrong with our socialization process. And we must remember that economics is a social science and so what happens in an economy is highly dependent on the social skills and behaviour of the persons in the economy.

So while at Hellshire today I noticed a few things. These included (i) a man driving a bus load of people while smoking a ganja spliff; (ii) young men smoking ganja spliffs on the beach; (iii) young men with their shorts falling off exposing their underwear; (iv) women with children around them inappropriately dressed; and (v) the suggestive music being played with the young children subconciusly absorbing all the sexually explicit and violent lyrics.

The behaviour also reminded me of the conversations I have all the time with a fellow cyclist, Dr. Sandra Knight, about the significat number of child abuse cases perpetrated many times by the father who goes unpunished and the generational cases of child abuse in a single family. These of course continue primarily because no one is held accountable in the main.

This also reminds us of the 14 year old girl that was rcently killed and placed in a bag and admitted to by a businessman, but also found out that at 14 she was pregnant. This again brought home a stark reality that there has been no report of accountability for the parents of this 14 year old, which should have been reported in the investigations also. A facebook discussion on the matter also revealed another weakness as some women were saying that the mother should be held accountable and I had to remind them twice that both the mother and father should be held responsible, bringing home the fact that we are only too happy to absolve the fathers of the responsibility, even though I can say that today many many fathers are stepping up to the plate even more than many many mothers.

It seems to me therefore that none of the economic and fiscal challenges can be solved without first looking at the social fabric of our beloved country. It is certainly not unique to Jamaica, as even the great USA seems to have some significant deviant social behaviour, and we certainly don't need to adopt some of those types of behaviour. I am for example reminded that children can still freely express their religious beliefs and read the bible in schools in Jamaica, which was recently reported as a problem in a US school.

In other words if we are to truly make Jamaica the place of choice to live, raise families, work, and do business it is not only important that we focus on macroeconomic and quantittive targets, but even more critical that we address the societal behavioural issues, which I really hear no one speaking about. So children under the age of 16 continue to have children without the appropriate accountability in many instances, and a signifcant number of young men find themselves "digging out their palms on the street corner". I must say though that in all of this I do find some very hard working and focussed young persons, and they will do well based on their attitudes. But similarly there are many coming out of the universities with very poor work ethics and attitudes.

I think that in many instances that leadership is to be blamed for this and the most important leadership is that of parenting. This I think is the fundamental problem we face. We have taught our children to be many things but for around two generations now we have seen a significant decline in parenting skills. When I was growing up parents taught their children how to behave around other adults, use a fork and knife, respect for other children, and other social skills. This I think is the missing in our social fabric that contributes to our labour productivity issues that cause our economic challenges.

Who will bell the cat?

Low-hanging development options

MOST times when we speak about economic and social development, many of us think about the cost of infrastructure or costs associated with the government providing stimulus to the economy. Or if we talk about reducing crime, then one of the first things discussed is the need for more resources for the police.

The truth is many things can be done that do not require a great deal of resources. This is the same as making positive changes in an organisation. In many instances, the really positive changes that are needed to kick-start a successful organisation do not have any costs attached to them.

In fact, spending money can make the situation even worse if the requisite action is not taken to set the stage for a new development path. Similarly, we often hear that the police force and the health sector need more resources, but putting money into a broken system does not necessarily fix the problem. Leading up to the 2008 recession, for example, we saw more and more funds being allocated to health, security, and education, but those sectors actually worsened over that period.

We face a similar situation in Jamaica today. We have a broken system, and putting more money into it without the necessary fundamental changes will only cause us to be in greater debt. This is why the adjustment under the economic programme is so important — not just throwing money at each and every outcry that we hear. We have done that in the past, where we have been in the middle of an adjustment programme and as soon as we near an election, or as a sector cries out, we resume the old ways of borrowing money to ease the cries before polling day. And so we start the whole process again and again. The only difference being that we start from a worse base all the time.

Low-hanging fruit can create significant change without any significant cost. There are four main initiatives that can be taken to bring positive development. They will require strong support from the citizenry, who regularly complain about the country's governance. This is an opportunity for us to turn around the country with little involvement from politicians. But are we willing to take the personal responsibility to do this? Much of a country's development rests in the hands of the people. It is only when the people decide they want a better country that any improvement happens.

The first initiative is the cost of health. Approximately 70 per cent of the cost of health in Jamaica has to do with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), otherwise known as lifestyle diseases. These include things like diabetes, high blood pressure, and even some cancers. Jamaica • billions on NCDs each year, much of it scarce foreign exchange for treatment drugs. In addition, much of the individual health costs relate to NCDs. But the fact is the great majority of these diseases are avoidable. If we behave differently when it comes to nutrition and exercise, then the country's fiscal accounts and balance of payments would benefit. In addition, the cost of individual health insurance would be significantly reduced. No government policy can force this to happen. It is a matter of personal choice.

The second initiative relates to our environment. We know the challenge of garbage collection, and we rightly hold the NSWMA responsible when they fail to perform this critical function efficiently. But a big part of our environmental challenge comes down to our own personal choices. The degradation of the environment has a deleterious effect on Jamaica, particularly because we are a tourist destination. Apart from the negative effect on tourism, it also can be the cause of natural disasters caused by flooding etc. The result of not taking care of our environment is that it can cost us billions in f o re g o n e revenue from tourism, and every time we have a natural disaster it costs the country tens of millions of dollars. The irony is that much of the cost from environmental effects is because of actions by citizens, who pollute the gullies and other parts of the environment.

The third area is law and order. If we are to achieve vision 2030, then it is going to be important to develop a society that is disciplined and adheres to the rule of law. Indiscipline on the roads and non-compliance with the Noise Abatement Act are two areas where citizens can exercise control. Even though the government is responsible for enforcement of these laws, the fact is much of the responsibility lies with the citizens, who are the ones who break the law. This is tied to enforcement, which is a primary responsibility of the government. Another area of enforcement that we disregard but which will lead to a more ordered environment is the zoning law.

The final area is a huge negative for investments and business — public sector bureaucracy. Even though the transformation of the sector will require some amount of funds, the fact is much can be achieved by just changing the attitude of the workers. An example of where this has worked is the Tax Authority of Jamaica, which has not only made legislative changes to be more effective, but more importantly is transforming the approach to customer service delivery.

These are some of the lowhanging fruit that must be picked, to cause serious transformation in the economy and social lives of Jamaicans. Even if we were to spend money on these areas, without the change in behaviour by us Jamaicans, these areas will not improve. The role of government is enforcement, but if we as Jamaicans truly want the country to advance, do we need to wait on enforcement or should we individually be making the change?

Therefore, even while we grapple with the need for funds, we should also realise that much of what is needed to transform our economic and social fortunes really comes down to the will of the government and of us the people to want a better country.

Think differently for a better future, Jamaica

Police Commissioner Carl Williams (right) and National Security Minister Peter Bunting have the right attitude for change.

2015 is here, and we celebrate a new year and new beginnings. But what does the turn of a new year really mean?

Traditionally, we have always celebrated a new year as a new beginning, but what makes the start of a new year any different from the old year? After all, we still have the same crime problem on January 1 as we did on December 31. We still have the same leadership issues. We still have the same problems with bureaucracy (which we were reminded of on the last day of 2014 with the statement from Omar Azan).

There are, of course, some things that are different, which we can speak to. We threw out the old calendars and put up the new ones. That is if you are still from the old school where you have a physical calendar rather than a digital version. For some companies and accountants it is significant because it is the start of a new accounting year, but then again, this is not consistent with everyone.

The truth is that there is nothing different between an old year and a new year, outside of the festivities and commercial activities. When we return to work on Monday, the workload and challenges will be the same as December 31 (unless you worked throughout the holidays).

Many of us make New Year resolutions, which we carry from year to year, and each year they need to be bigger, as we have, for example, gained more weight or have not done all that we wanted to do.

So in reality, there is really nothing different about a new year. The positive about recognising a new year is that it provides for us a measure of time, which we can use to measure progress or failure.

But this measure of time is only useful if we had goals, charted a path for those goals, and made sure that we followed our plan. So a company may do a budget and strategic plan for the year, but if the management fails to follow and monitor the plan during the year, then they could come to the end of the year and realise they have not achieved it.

Similarly, a person who has a health plan, such as weight loss, needs to monitor the steps every day to achieve that plan.

Therefore, while the new year serves as a significant measurement milestone, the achievement of that milestone is reached by actions during the year. So we really don't need a new year to do this, but rather it provides a yardstick and is a good way for people to check their indiscipline.

How many of us have made resolutions in the past to lose weight, but find ourselves putting on more each year? Or how many of us have said that we want to achieve something during a year but find at the end of the year that we are one year older without the achievement?

One thing we can agree on, however, is that the new year is not a magical solution to any challenges we have.

So how do we ensure that we achieve what we want during a year? The reality is that the only thing that will allow change is for us to change our mindset and approach to existing situations. In other words, actions are most times driven by how we think about the problems.

So, if you want to make health changes in 2015, then you have to change your attitude and behaviour that cause the weight problem, which may include getting new friends who do not encourage the bad behaviour.

If we also want a better country, then we also must change the way we approach and think about solutions. This I find to be a big part of the problem we have had over the years.

We have, for example, had many International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreements and promises by politicians in previous years but have always found ourselves back in the same economic quagmire or worse. This is simply because, until the current agreement, we had not adopted a new way of thinking and doing things. And this is why many are saying that the current path, in general, does not work.

Those people are slaves to the normal ways of doing things, which is a significant reason that companies seek younger talent all the time, as they come with a different perspective, which is needed for growth.

This is not limited to the politicians, many of whom need renewal. It also applies to the public. A big challenge for me resides with public sector leadership and rules. I think there are some excellent workers and leaders in the public sector, but there are also some people who think that the role of the public sector is to prevent rather than facilitate.

For example, one of the things we must confront in 2015 is that growing fiscal revenues is not just about squeezing every last cent out of businesses in the form of taxes, but also facilitating the growth of business, resulting in a much larger base of revenue, even if it means lowering the tax take from businesses.

If we are also going to deal with the crime and law and order problems, then we must also think of a different approach. Police Commissioner Carl Williams and National Security Minister Peter Bunting, I think, have the right attitude change that will see progress in this area, and we are seeing some progress, although many are not capable of seeing change while it is happening.

There is, however, still much to be done here.

Much of the responsibility for law and order also resides with the citizens, who don't see anything they do as wrong. My challenge to citizens is that they should not support any violation of laws such as the Night Abatement Act, or driving and talking on the phone, or disposing of garbage improperly.

We must also change our attitudes to child abuse and punish the perpetrators, and those who are complicit, severely.

This responsibility even extends to not protecting people who have done wrong and supporting the rules to be implemented by the JUTC. When they start implementing these rules we shouldn't be asking for people to be given a "bligh". We must support the rules and call out the JUTC if they are not implementing them to the fullest extent of the law.

So as we start the measurement period of 2015, let us all understand that irrespective of the great plans and wants we have, that these will only be successful if we change our mindset and approach to dealing with our challenges, as there is no magic wand that is waved at the start of a new year.

Happy New Year, everyone.

2015 prospects for Jamaica

        Agriculture has a critical role to play in our development.

AS we come to the end of 2014, it is traditional for us to think about what will happen in the New Year. Apart from tradition, however, the end of a year is always used as a mark to measure progress and look towards the future.

2014 has been a year of mixed fortunes, and indeed a transformative year. This is reflected in the progress made under the economic programme, as well as the many transitions in the legislative framework, and society. For example, we saw the following:

* Economy -- fiscal improvements. The foreign exchange market went from volatility to stability and further end-of-year movements; the stock market seems to have levelled off as expected; significant improvement in the Doing Business Report; and businesses experienced mixed fortunes and a new normal in the competitive market emerged.

* Legislative framework -- much change was made in the legislative landscape and we saw many proposed legislative amendments being made, based on public feedback. Overall, however, my own view is that much progress was made.

* Society -- improvement in policing methods and lowering of crime statistics; more vibrant civil society, resulting in greater input in policy actions (eg response to Mario Deane incident); reduced unemployment and also reduced real wages; and, I think, greater effort by authorities to come to grips with some of the societal challenges, although much remains to be done and enforcement is still not where it should be.

My biggest disappointment is that we were not able to make more progress in the public sector reform and bureaucracy issues, because although some movement has been made, this still remains a major stumbling block to businesses.

I think, as we go into 2015, however, we could see further improvements in our economic and social development. But this is going to depend to a great degree on how leadership deals with the issues that will face us.

In other words, we are going to need strong leadership, which must be equitable and come down on the side of justice and fairness, as this will be the only way to balance the competing interests in the society for the benefit of the entire country.

On the economic front, I believe that we stand a good chance of a more vibrant economy as we have dealt with many of the structural issues facing the fiscal and macroeconomic environment. Although there are some significant targets remaining under the economic programme, it is my view that the significant legislative and other reforms made have laid a foundation for us to move forward positively. But this is going to depend on how we handle the advantages we have gained. These include:

1) Fiscal -- I think that the Government has made significant strides in laying a foundation to continue fiscal discipline, and we have seen the benefits in our accounts. However, we must now realise that fiscal discipline alone cannot carry us much further, as all this does is control expenditures while what is needed now is growth. So it is going to be important that we implement policies and legislation that encourage businesses to grow, and particularly SMEs. Much of the infrastructure is still not conducive to a supportive business environment, and unless we are able to change these positively, then we will come to a standstill. This is going to require continued collaboration between the public and private sectors, as one hand can't clap.

2) Governance -- There have been some stormy discussions over governance in 2014, and we must continue the dialogue to address this, as governance is going to be key to building trust, which is the basis of economic and social progress. Governance, however, is much more than at the national level and includes things like enforcing simple laws such as those dealing with road usage, night noises, and littering. It also includes ensuring that public sector bodies follow proper board and reporting governance.

3) Energy -- Over the past few months we have seen oil prices falling significantly, approximately 50 per cent, but there is a concern that consumers have not seen the full benefit. This is important to take advantage of, as falling oil prices create an excellent avenue for providing economic stimulus as it will mean more disposable income in the hands of consumers for the local economy.

4) Macro economy -- The Bank of Jamaica has a critical role to play here, as with the adjustments happening in the economy it will have to know how to tweak money supply; for example, to balance the fear of a moving exchange rate and the need for adequate liquidity. Any miscalculation could put a spoke in the wheel of the economy's development.

5) Agriculture -- I think agriculture has a critical role to play in our development, as many new enterprises can emerge from this, particularly export-led ones. The problem with our agriculture is that it has been highly disorganised and is based more on subsistence farming than large-scale farms. This is unsustainable in a competitive market, and so the agro-parks are a critical component of a future industry. What is going to be important is that we ensure that the proper management is in place to ensure that agro-parks deliver on their potential. If we are able to maximise this area, then there is also a large potential to supply local produce in place of much of the US$1-billion food imports.

6) Tourism -- This is another area of significant potential. However, our inability to enforce environmental laws, deal with squatting, tourist harassment, and littering, and develop our infrastructure is not allowing us to maximise our competitive advantage. With the opening up of Cuba to the US market, it is even more critical to have a well-planned approach to deal with this. This, of course, includes crime, which is a scourge on not only tourism but also business in general.

These are some of the issues we will face in 2015, and whether we are successful or not will depend on what leadership is provided. We have certainly shown that we have the capacity to confront issues, as we have done with the economic programme, and must now ensure this infects other areas.

As we go into 2015, however, as citizens we must also reflect on our individual responsibility to ensure we are compliant with proper law and order and do our part to move the country forward.

Happy holidays and much prosperity in 2015.

Great need to transform Jamaica's labour force

JAMAICA seems set to pass the sixth International Monetary Fund (IMF) test, underlining the fact that we have, no doubt, been making progress in establishing the framework on which development must take place.

I say this against the background that the legislative and fiscal initiatives put in place have been successful in ensuring some amount of stability and confidence in the economy. We see that there is more acceptance of Jamaican debt, and businesses are expressing the view that goods have become more competitive with the depreciation of the exchange rate.

This has also culminated in an improvement of 27 places in the Doing Business Report 2015, which is a reversal of the movement in ranking that we have been seeing in the past few years. This positive change in ranking, however, is as a result of the improvement in the legislative framework in particular. However, it has not translated itself into meaningful improvement on the ground, and this is where the challenge lies for us.

The fact is that businesses still see bureaucracy as a major stumbling block, and people are seeing a real decrease in their disposable incomes. We also note that even though there are improvements in the macroeconomic numbers, and in particular the balance of payments, the fact is that this has come as a result of contraction and specifically a decline in both imports and exports.

The challenge facing the country then, is this: How can we achieve the real GDP growth needed, which will not only ensure greater levels of income but also bring sustained stability in the economic and social framework?

At the heart of this problem is productivity, and specifically the low levels of labour productivity we have been experiencing. This speaks to the unpreparedness of our labour force to adequately compete in a global environment. We face a daunting challenge: How do we transform the labour force from low productivity to one of high productivity?

This is the only formula that leads to sustained economic and social transformation, which should be our ultimate goal. It is also this transformation that will give us the real GDP growth needed to turn around our economic fortunes.

My own experience is that while we may have greater educational opportunities available, our labour force is neither innovative nor sufficiently focused on problem solving to effectively compete globally. And if you think about it, labour is the driving force behind every product or service that is produced.

So if labour is not competitive, in terms of innovation and value-added thought processes, then the resulting product or service will not have the desired competitiveness in a global market.

So how do we transform the labour force?

The first thing we must do is understand what role we want labour to play in a highly competitive economy and society. This also means establishing some societal goals such as income levels and standard of living.

We have never really, from a policy perspective, established what is labour's role in a competitive economy, and therefore there has never really been any link between economic planning and education planning. In other words, we have failed to put our people at the centre of our development.

Second, if you want labour to be competitive, then you must create the environment for productivity, thought, and innovation to thrive. Everyone who is involved in managing people knows that if you don't have a conducive environment to encourage productivity, then people are not going to produce at maximum.

The truth is that as a country we have not created that environment over the years, and this stems mainly from distrust between the citizens and the security forces, Government, the public sector and other stakeholders.

One of my pet peeves has always been that the way we set up our laws, and rules governing public sector workers, for example, assumes that no one is to be trusted. So we have procurement rules and tax compliance certificate regulations, which seem to assume, first, that everyone is dishonest and then they have to prove honesty.

Or we have an environment where the security forces over the years have failed to win the confidence of citizens. So how can we expect a productive labour force if we don't facilitate an environment to encourage it?

Third, it is important that we create a culture of pay for performance. And I speak specifically of the public sector, where reward is more based on seniority and connections in many respects. There is a lot of talent in that sector, which will not be maximised unless we adopt the model of rewarding performance.

Fourth, we need to incorporate education plans into our economic objectives. So the monies lent through the Students' Loan Bureau, for example, should be tied to what skills we will need to move the economy forward. Government should also offer scholarships in those skill sets, instead of using our scarce resources to fund skills that are highly unlikely to get a good job, given Jamaica's comparative advantage.

The last thing I will mention, but which is very important, is that we need to create an environment of discipline and rules. One of the major challenges with labour is that people have grown up with a lack of proper values and are generally undisciplined.

This has resulted, in large part, from the fact that we do not enforce laws, which may be as simple as night noise, littering, child abuse/protection, or the indiscipline on the roads. If we do not address this indiscipline, then we are teaching our children -- our future work force -- that it is acceptable to deviate.

And so it is important for us to understand that as we move into a critical phase of the economic programme, that economic and social transformation are necessary in order to create real sustainable growth. But this is only possible if we transform our labour force into a highly productive one, which means taking the necessary steps to do so.

Overcoming the challenge of poverty

Jonah Johnson shows the kitchen where he cooks for his family. (FILE PHOTO)

ACCORDING to the recently released 2012 Survey of Living Conditions (SLC), Jamaica has recorded an increase in poverty levels between 2009 and 2012.

"The all-Jamaica individual poverty prevalence increased by 2.3 percentage points relative to 2010 to reach 19.9 per cent," the survey stated. This was not totally unexpected, as the global recession hit us in 2008, and capital markets were closed to us amidst a stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement up to 2013. So it was unlikely that, without global capital market support, Jamaica would have seen any improvement in poverty levels.

One of the primary reasons for this is that , since the 1970s, Jamaica has managed to see improvements in poverty levels only as a result of increased borrowing rather than productivity improvement. That, however, was not sustainable as it was not based on earnings.

So, at the heart of our poverty challenge is the fact that since the 1970s, productivity levels, and labour productivity in particular, have been on a downward trend. As a result, Jamaican-produced goods and services have become less competitive globally, and this has contributed to the increased levels of poverty that we continue to experience.

The only way for us to overcome this poverty challenge is to increase productivity, and in particular labour productivity. For us to do this we have a lot of catching up to do. In developed countries robots are now being used instead of humans in warehousing, agricultural production, and many other industries.

In the meantime, we are grappling with an unemployment rate, hovering around 12 per cent, and relatively low literacy levels. Add to that equation the indiscipline of our labour force and the need for labour reform, and you see the challenge we have with labour and labour productivity.

It is important that we understand this, as the only way for us to sustainably reduce poverty, and even more if we are to improve per capita GDP to the levels of comparable countries, is if we are to significantly increase labour productivity. This is because earnings are a function of productivity, and therefore average wage levels will not increase (without debt) if we do not see first an increase in labour productivity.

The way we have chosen in the past to reduce poverty and increase earnings is primarily through the welfare influence of the State. What we have done is borrowed money (resulting in a $2-trillion debt today) and distribute it through government activity and programmes, with no relation to what the most productive use of that debt is. The result being that we are not able to pay back the debt, culminating in a debt burden that is fiscal, economic, and social.

Now that we have finally chosen the path to reduce our debt burden, and bring about the necessary fiscal reform, it was always going to be inevitable that we would see an increase in poverty levels. This is especially so during the period of the SLC, where we had no international capital support (debt) and there was an economic recession.

From 2012 to now, we have seen where the economy has made fiscal and monetary improvements, after the IMF agreement got back on track. The result has been improvements in the macroeconomic and trade indicators. But this improvement has not been as a result of economic expansion, but rather contraction. This, of course, was not unexpected, as there were so many inefficiencies in the system that it was inevitable that the economy had to contract before it started to expand, and particularly since much of the economy depended on debt, from which we are trying to wean ourselves, just like a drug addict going through withdrawal symptoms.

This, however, is not a sustainable path either, as we could contract to a point where it becomes difficult to start growing again. We are definitely not yet at that point, but you don't wait until you are weakest to try and regain your strength.

I believe the necessary legislative and fiscal reforms are being made, but the major challenge that we will face centres around labour productivity in both the public and private sectors.

The greatest challenge we will face to the turnaround of our economic fortunes is the labour force, and how we improve labour productivity. We must find a way to maximise the productivity of labour, especially in a world where menial tasks are being automated. This is also the only way to reduce poverty, as reducing unemployment by providing low-paying jobs does not reduce poverty, but institutionalises it instead.

So one of the first challenges we have is improving not just the literacy rate, but more importantly training our labour force to become problem-solvers and innovators. This must be one of the primary focuses of learning institutions.

Secondly, we need to use our scarce resources to focus education around the skill sets that we will require to expand our economy. It makes no sense using scarce government resources to educate people in a field where there will be very little or no demand for the skills.

Finally, as a general comment, we must quickly implement the labour market reform called for in the economic programme/IMF agreement.

There are many other initiatives I can think of that would contribute to improved labour productivity, but these are some main initiatives to focus on. What is important for us to understand, though, is that the only way to reduce poverty sustainably is to focus on improving the labour factor productivity to globally competitive levels.

Jamaica’s fundamental challenges

ONE of the things I pointed out early in my second book is that before we can solve a problem we need to understand what the fundamental issues are. I say that because over the years I find that we tend to address the symptoms of our problems rather than the underlying issues.

This is also true when we engage in debate about what solutions are to be applied. I guess that’s because some of us are not able to really understand the issues.

I do find that this is not only a national problem, but also manifests itself on a personal level. So, as an example, many people who are uncomfortable with their weight tend to try to cover it with clothes or undergo cosmetic surgery, or apply other solutions, when the real problem is getting proper nutrition and exercise.

However, humans tend to always seek the easier way out, and so the cosmetic solution is often preferred. This reflects the approach to our economic challenges where, for a very long time, we have delayed having to take the necessary decisions to ensure a better future.

The result is that the delay in acting causes tougher decisions later, both nationally and personally. In other words, it is better to maintain good health than to get it back.

So recently, more than ever I have been giving serious thought to what Jamaica’s fundamental challenges are, and why we have not been able to make any real progress in over 50 years of Independence. Maybe because I am getting older, I am even more distraught at the suffering that many Jamaicans have to endure, especially the children who are abused, and after so many years we are still unable to fix these ills of society.

Instead, what we have done is focus on many macro issues while ignoring the plight of individuals in general.

One thing I have learned is that no matter how much you try to address the macro environment, unless we deal effectively with the smaller issues we will never sustainably solve the bigger problems. This is very true for organisations, as many people try to implement policies and systems without giving due consideration to the environment that the staff has to work in.

In both an organisation and a country, the most valuable resource you will have is the people, as without people there is no organisation or country. This is an important concept to understand as the main reason behind every activity on earth is life, or people.

The other thing that many of us fail to understand is that economics is all about human behaviour. So too is social studies. And whether you have a successful economy or society depends on how people behave. In other words, the vibrancy of an economy is not fundamentally about the policies implemented, but rather how people react to the policies. Do they encourage people to consume or produce?

It would stand to reason then that if we are to truly achieve success, or to achieve the objectives of Vision 2030, then any policies that we formulate must put people at the centre.

After all, policies and laws mean nothing if people don’t support them and act positively towards them. In fact, one of the main reasons why we have failed to achieve prosperity as a country, relative to other countries, is that we have failed to consider the importance attached to the welfare of our people.

I know that we have enacted many laws and that various structures have been put in place. However, for me, the success of policies and actions is not based on announcements and implementation only, as we have become accustomed to, but rather on outcomes. In other words, with all that we have done, and all the investments made, have we seen the desired improvement in income levels and quality of life generally? At the economic level, after all the debt that has burdened us over the years, have we seen the desired economic growth?

If the answer to that is no, then it means that no matter how much effort has been made, we have not achieved what we desired. And it must mean that we have been doing something terribly wrong, and of necessity must relook at what we are doing.

This is why we had to make a seismic shift in how we approached our economic and fiscal challenges. Based on the past two years, it seems as if we have come to grips with what needs to be done in that area. However, this is just a part of the bigger problem, as a country’s development, in the final analysis, is about improving the standard of living generally and providing greater opportunities to people, not just meeting economic targets.

So even after we have successfully achieved the economic targets we still have work to do.

We have to accept that we have not done a good job as a country in this regard, and it is not only because of poor governance, but very importantly a lack of our own personal responsibility, and how we understand our roles as citizens.

I think that the basic problem we face is the lack of proper parenting, and that we live in a time when roles are confused, as children want to act like adults and adults want to act like children. Just like the mosquito infestation, which has contributed to the CHIKV spread, if we were to all address the actions of our own surroundings then we would have better citizens contributing to development.

This problem crystallises itself in social issues that, I think, are at the root of our problems. These include child abuse, poor parenting, unethical values and attitudes, general indiscipline and lack of enforcement of order by the people responsible, and the list goes on. The point is that if we have a society that does not produce good and productive citizens, then we will have economies and societies that are far from optimal, if we accept that economies and societies are nothing more than the interaction of people.

There is a lot more I could say on the subject, but suffice it to say that Jamaica’s fundamental challenges lie in how we build and maintain improved standards of living for our people.

The main lesson I learnt from visiting Cuba

HAVANA, Cuba — Jorge Perez, the head of Cuba’s top tropical medicine institute, points to a map, showing the location of the field hospital set up to train doctors in the fight against Ebola, in Havana on Friday, October 17, 2014. Cuba has sent 165 doctors to Sierra Leone and plans to send 296 more to Liberia and Guinea, the largest commitment of medical personnel so far. Perez says Cuba is ready to send more doctors as long as there is enough funding and infrastructure to support them.

LAST month I was a member of the delegation that visited Cuba with Health Minister Dr Fenton Ferguson to look at that country's preparation for Ebola, and thus take back some lessons for implementation in Jamaica.

There is no doubt that even though Ebola is unlikely to penetrate the Caribbean region, the fact is that the consequences of it doing so are so harmful that it is important for us to do everything to prevent it. In the unlikely event that it does enter the region, it is imperative that we contain it quickly.

This was my first visit to Cuba, and I was very impressed with how organised they are, and their approach to confronting challenges. The team did learn a lot from the visit, and the hospitality of the Cubans was outstanding.

One could argue that the system of government, and the resulting effect on the standard of living leave much to be desired. However, that is not what I want to focus on, as I think there are some very important lessons for us to learn from them.

We did learn a lot about the Ebola virus and how to prepare for it, including the systems to use. However, the main lesson for me went far beyond Ebola. It was the fact that there exists a well-ordered and disciplined society, and that the people seemed to take a lot of pride in what they do and strive for perfection. This, of course, can only come through years of instilling this culture.

The truth is that this type of order exists in countries like the US also, and this is primarily because they ensure the enforcement of law and order, not unlike in Cuba, although in a more democratic way. The level of order and discipline in both societies can only come through the authorities ensuring that they enforce laws.

It seemed to me that it does not matter how many conferences we go to or how many laws we have on the books, if we do not ensure that there is order, which is enforced in a fair and swift manner, then we will never be able to realise our full potential as a country.

The first thing is that, even though we were on an official visit -- where you are usually ushered through immigration quickly -- the Cuban immigration authorities spent time with each member of the delegation quizzing us about our travels and whether we had visited West Africa.

I am sure that they had some indication of whether we had or not, as they went through our passports thoroughly, but may have used the questions as a way of confirming our honesty. The fact, though, is that they ensured that the system of screening applied to everyone, as border control seemed extremely important. They later advised that this level of scrutiny was applied to anyone entering Cuba.

I was also impressed by the fact that for them, 8:30 am did not mean 8:31 am. In other words, there was a lot of respect for time, and everyone with whom we spoke was very knowledgeable and very comprehensive in their analysis.

So they thought about everything that could possibly go wrong, so that every system they had in place was there for a reason, down to how they put on and took off the hazmat suits. They also had a true centralised system of operations and included a wide cross section of people in their deliberations.

The health system is also very well organised, so that each region has a hospital and each hospital has around 25 doctors, who live in the communities where they work, and each deals with about 1,200 patients, so they know each patient very well. This may not work in our system of competition and a broken health care system. However, it shows that health care is a national priority and must be seen as critical for development.

I was also very impressed with the fact that they don't allow the deterioration of the infrastructure, which is also very well organised. There are many parks for communities and the roads are organised for cyclists, pedestrians and vehicles. Quite a contrast to Jamaica where it's every man for himself.

I noticed, also, that the Cubans are very active in restoring the buildings in Old Havana to their original architectural design, as they recognise the value of this as a tourist attraction. I often wonder when I see the historical pictures of downtown Kingston why we never did that, not to mention Port Royal and the value that would have had as a tourist attraction.

It is this lack of discipline and order in Jamaica that, in my view, has been the primary reason for our economic and social decay. For example, we love to speak about major crimes like murder, but we never seem to realise the link between murder and general lack of discipline and law and order. In other words, how can we solve crime if everyone is allowed to do what they want when driving, throw garbage anywhere they want, or play music at whatever level they want or whenever they want?

Or how can we solve crime when it takes years to get a case through the courts, or there is no equity in justice, as in case of Mario Deane and others held in prisons for long periods without a trial.

How do we talk about economic development when there is no proper monitoring of the zoning laws by the parish councils, leading to improper competition? Or how can we see an increase in productivity when the bureaucracy of the public sector takes hours to deal with one transaction, or it takes each of us 368 hours per year to pay taxes?

The truth is that, unless we can address the problem of a dysfunctional society, in terms of law, order, and values, and unless there is accountability for actions, then we will not realise the potential we need for sustainable economic and social development.

Each citizen, of course, has a big role to play, and I am reminded of this when I see how much garbage gets into the gullies and onto the beaches. It is just plain lack of any respect for self why we as a people throw garbage on the roads, but maybe this is a reflection of the pride some of us have in ourselves.

So while the trip to Cuba did produce valuable lessons about the Ebola situation, more importantly it showed me that if we are to move forward, then we must develop a society that embraces law and order, and citizens who accept their own responsibility.

The risk of inadequate health management

MONROVIA, Liberia — A man walks past a billboard warning people of the deadly Ebola virus in Monrovia on Friday. The number of people killed in the Ebola outbreak has risen above 4,000, the World Health Organisation has said. The latest figures show there have been 8,376 cases and 4,024 deaths in the worst-affected West African nations of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. (PHOTO: AP)

THE world has, in recent weeks, been very concerned with the Ebola virus and more importantly, containing it. Here in Jamaica, we have been dealing with the effects of the chikungunya virus, more commonly referred to as ChikV, while also keeping our eye on what is happening with Ebola, as this can be very devastating for Jamaica and the global economy.

I have seen many comments on social media, and I have posted a few as well, debating what measures should be put in place, and where responsibility lies. Some of these discussions have been constructive, some have been irrational, and some have been political. Many can only qualify as the rantings of ignorant people who don't have the ability to understand what the temperature is beyond the tip of their noses.

What is very clear to me is that proper health management in these circumstances is not something that we should seek opinions and consensus on, as the consequence of failure and delay is too horrendous. Sure, we want to consult with various stakeholders, but that consultation must take place with stakeholders who can make a difference to the fight, and not just consult for consulting's sake.

You also want to constantly review all processes, and be critical of what is not going right, but that should be constructively done in order to improve the situation, not seek one-upmanship.

This means that the management of the health care system generally requires astute and objective leadership which must be free of both ego and sensitivity, and must be able to communicate.

We must also understand that leadership is not just government and other officials, but must be leadership within our businesses, households, and wider communities. In other words, as the prime minister said, health management is more about personal responsibility than anything that can be done at a policy level, as health is really a personal issue. Whether it be ChikV, Ebola, or lifestyle diseases, it is all about how we manage our surroundings that affects us and those around us.

With that said though, leadership is responsible for communication and education, and we can all agree that this CHIKV outbreak was not managed properly. This should be accepted as such by the authorities. But once that is done, then let's put it down to a practice run for the real threat of Ebola, and other infectious diseases that are not here as yet.

So the press conference on Thursday with the prime minister and Sandrea Falconer is a good start to a much better approach after ChikV.

The Medical Association of Jamaica, as reported, also seems more confident in the current approach to the preparation for Ebola, and all of us need to be involved in the fight to keep it away. Which, by the way, means ensuring that we observe safety procedures when we travel, and when we return to Jamaica we are honest about where we went and any possible exposure. Again, the role of personal responsibility.

I say all of this because there is a huge risk

to improper health management, which includes inadequate communication and education. A recent report says that (i) approximately US$32.7 billion will be needed to fight Ebola in West Africa; (ii) failure to contain the epidemic could compromise the future of not only West Africa, but the entire continent.

In other words, this could be much worse than the 2008 financial crisis if it is not dealt with quickly. Any hint of an outbreak in Europe, Asia, North, or South America (largest global markets) could plummet financial markets and cause significant reduction in earning power and consumption. Also, unlike the slowdown in global markets caused by bad mortgages in 2008, this could lead to much more devastating and long-term consequences, as we would see global brands and physical markets disappearing.

This is why all the major developed countries are treating this as a major potential crisis and are pledging billions of US dollars in the fight, because if this is not controlled it could be the end of the world as we know it. In other words, a health crisis resulting from a disease like this is worse than any financial market crash or world war. In fact, it could lead to a global financial meltdown and war.

This is why personal responsibility is very critical, and why Jamaica needs to do everything to protect its borders and residents. This is not about giving some people a "bly", as we are used to doing.

The reality is that we are a tourist destination and we are just trying to cope with an IMF agreement which seems to be bearing some fruit, but we still remain very fragile. We also have a poor health infrastructure, a significant percentage of unemployment and people living below the poverty line, relative to other parts of the region and the world.

Therefore, the best line of defence for us is to ensure that our borders are well protected, and that proper and effective monitoring of anyone suspected is in place. Anyone who believes they have symptoms or have been exposed and do not report it to the authorities should face criminal penalties.

And anyone in authority who is negligent in their duties to act or report should also face penalties. This is how seriously we should approach this situation, as the possible economic and social fallout from this is like a final event.

It is going to require all of us in Government, Opposition, private sector, public sector, and civil society to work together. We need to support each other with action and criticisms. Anyone who is going to take a leadership role has to be big enough to rise above criticism, accept it where relevant and just get the job done.

I say all this, fully aware that there are no cases here, but also understanding that the time to act is not when something happens, but before. As they say, 'prevention is better than cure', and that is definitely so in this case.

I am heartened by last Thursday's press conference by the prime minister, and the comments by the MAJ. The education and communication must be very consistent and transparent as we move forward. Too much information is better than too little.

What is Jamaica's growth potential?

Planning Institute of Jamaica Director General Colin Bullock. The PIOJ is targeting three per cent growth for next fiscal year.

THE Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is targeting real GDP growth of three per cent in the fiscal year 2015/16. This is against the previously targeted 1.5 to two per cent, under the current IMF agreement. I have long indicated that Jamaica has the capacity to grow at rates of between three to five per cent, in the short to medium term, and also that if we are really to see meaningful growth that will impact the man on the street, then growth must be upwards of three per cent.

I am sure that many will wonder if the PIOJ is being objective in targeting three per cent growth, when for the past 42 years Jamaica has averaged less than one per cent per annum. In fact, the only time that we saw growth over three per cent consecutively was in the 1980s. We have, however, seen one or two years of three per cent growth since then, but the problem we have had is it has not been consistent.

Another question to ask, therefore is: Even if we can achieve growth of three per cent in 2015/16, how sustainable is it, because one year of three per cent growth is not good enough for us to show any significant improvement in the standard of living for the average citizen.

It is also very true that even if we were to achieve a sustained period of growth of three per cent, many persons could still be disillusioned, as they could end up not being impacted positively. This is because macroeconomic growth does not guarantee growth for an individual or organisation, if that individual or organisation is not equipped to take advantage of the growth. Therefore, even in times when there is no growth many persons and businesses will still do well, because they have prepared individually.

In order for us to achieve growth of three per cent and above consistently, we must first understand if we have the capacity to do so, and secondly, what would prevent us from achieving that growth. It should be noted that the PIOJ targeted 2015/16, and did not address the years beyond, based on their expectation of certain projects coming on stream. Therefore, it is very possible that, based on the projects, there could be three per cent growth in 2015/16, but then we return to one per cent in 2016/17. I believe, however, that as a country we have the capacity to grow at three per cent, even beyond the 2015/16 year.

I say this because I don't think that Jamaica has fully exploited our comparative advantages, and there are just a few tweaks that need to be done for us to do so. Many of these changes are being made under the legislative and economic programme by the Government, at which Phillips and Golding are leading the charge. However, there are still some other adjustments to be made, if we are to sustainably achieve three per cent and above GDP growth. In other words, while the economic and legislative programme provides a platform for growth, there are some other things that must be done.

These include addressing the law and order problem, and I don't mean serious crimes like murder alone, but general indiscipline in the society. I am heartened by the position taken by the new police commissioner, and supported by the statement by Minister Bunting, who, I think, has been making the right strategic moves, and in fact, his policy initiatives and work of the former commissioner did have a positive impact on crime in general, and homicides in particular. So this has given the present commissioner an easier wicket to play on. One thing I find, though, that has changed for the worse, is that since Radcliffe Lewis retired from the Traffic department, I have noticed that the indiscipline by the taxis and buses (including JUTC) has got worse. I don't see the same presence by the police on the roads as when he was there. I also continue to notice the blatant disregard that people have for the night noise laws.

If we cannot maintain discipline in a society, then we are going to continue to negatively affect our growth prospects. No one wants to invest, and live, long-term in a society where there is so much indiscipline. A lot of this is personal responsibility by our citizens, who seem to thrive on indiscipline, but still the authorities must enforce the rules. I wouldn't even bother to mention the way we discard our garbage, which is most disgraceful.

This indiscipline extends to the parish councils, who over the years have been some of the biggest let-downs. I think that recently there has been some effort from some parish councils, but we must maintain the discipline of zoning laws and ensure property tax collection. How difficult can these be to enforce?

I have discussed bureaucracy on numerous occasions, and this continues to be the number one challenge that most business persons (large, medium, and small) face. All I will say on this is that I support the call by Minister Phillips for the Public Sector Transformation project to be fast-tracked. When the unit was being set up, I think in 2008/9, I indicated at the time that nothing would come of it, as the way it was set up and the implementation model made it impotent. We must ensure that bureaucracy is addressed, however, as failure to do so will stunt the growth of businesses, particularly at the much needed MSME level.

Energy is another obvious area, which I have discussed a lot also, and nothing more needs to be said as this is an obvious stumbling block to the much-needed value-added exports, which of course means more foreign exchange earnings.

There are two areas which are going to be critical if we are to see sustainable growth of above three per cent. The first is the education system. I believe that Minister Thwaites has been taking the right approach to the challenges the system faces, and I also believe that the stakeholders are coming around to seeing the best way forward. What I will say is that economic growth depends on growing income levels of consumers, and the only way for us to have a growing middle class is for the workforce to become more knowledgeable/educated and hence more productive. This cannot happen in an education system with over 50 per cent of our secondary school leavers graduating without one pass at CXC level.

Finally, there needs to be greater linkages between areas such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. Minister Wykeham McNeill has a Tourism Linkages council, which has successfully been making a lot of this happen, and I am optimistic that the direction it is heading in will bear fruit. So he has been quietly making some positive impact there. This is an important aspect of our growth journey.

My answer to the question, therefore, would be that Jamaica does have the potential to grow sustainably above three per cent, as we have the areas of comparative advantage that will attract investments. However, real sustainable growth will only come when we see the environment changing to become a place where people want to do business, live, and raise families, not just for the large investor, but more importantly, for the small and medium size business.

What is the role of personal responsibility in development?

The persons responsible for Mario Deane’s death must be held accountable.

THE recent Global Competitiveness Re-port has shown that Jamaica is seeing some international competi-tiveness return from the current set of policies being instituted. It has been a while since our competitiveness has improved, and this is indeed welcome news. We still need to bear in mind, though, that the report shows that both GDP and GDP per capita, in US dollars, has declined from the previous year, but that is to be expected if we are making adjustments in an economy with low productivity. After all, exchange rates are primarily a reflection of a country's relative productivity.

Even though we have seen some improvement in the competitiveness index, the economy still remains very fragile, and there is still a lot of work to do, so we must not become complacent. I know it is very difficult for the average man on the street, and the temptation will be there for persons to take advantage of the hardship and call for greater welfare, which will just put us back where we were. We have had over 50 years of welfare government, since independence, and it has not worked. So if we continue to do the same thing we cannot expect different results.

We also have seen improvement in the homicide rate, reducing by 40 per cent year on year; education seems to be making some improvement; agricultural production is up; the unemployment rate has decreased; and there seems to be a greater awareness in the public sector of the need to improve customer service. Also although I am hurt by incidents such as Mario Deane, as any well-thinking Jamaican should be, and the responsible persons must be held accountable, I am encouraged by the response from INDECOM, the security minister, police high command, and civil society. I also welcome the US pathologist and his remarks, as it brings a very objective view.

There is, however, one consideration that we must all be mindful of as persons who want to see Jamaica move forward, and that is understanding what is our personal responsibility to development. It was John F Kennedy who said to the American people in the 1960s, "Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country." Although I don't believe that we are still at the same levels of nationalism as in the 1960s, because the world is now like a global village, the message is one of personal responsibility.

In my interaction with persons over the years, on social media and other methods of communication, I have found that many of us don't understand the role of personal responsibility. For example, I have always said, and it is still true today, that many of the political party supporters are much more tribalistic in their views and utterances than the politicians. In fact I find most politicians fairly objective in their reasoning, but not so with many supporters.

I also sadly find that many Jamaicans are very pessimistic about Jamaica to the point where even when something good happens they are cynical about it. So if the homicide rate is reported as going down, then it is because World Cup was going on, or there is underreporting. Similarly when the unemployment numbers are reported as going down. I just can't imagine living with that sort of pessimism, as one must lead a very miserable life doing so.

The fact is that while we should hold our leaders, and those in authority, responsible and accountable for things that go wrong (such as Mario Deane), we must also commend them when they do good, or else they won't be encouraged to do so next time. This is why I have taken the stance to commend the efforts of TAJ, Phillips, Thwaites, Ellington, INDECOM, civil society groups, etc. Because we must encourage what we want to see happen rather than be cynical when there is no evidence to the contrary.

In mature democracies also, the reason why they develop is that citizens understand their responsibility to speak against things that are done incorrectly or unfairly. So look at the outcry about the Mario Deane case, and the results we are seeing. It is not enough to just criticise privately, as the voices of the people in democracies are extremely important for progress.

One other disturbing thing I have always noted is the need of the environmentalists to clean up after Jamaicans. I mean, why do we need an annual beach clean-up day, and each year there seems to be more garbage than the year before? I have seen situations where people are driving and just wind down their windows and throw the garbage on the street. Even as we speak about things like beach erosion and tourist harassment, we must understand that these things are not caused by government policy, but rather individual actions.

When I look at countries like the US, I recognise that these countries were built by citizens understanding their individual responsibilities to act in a way that promotes development. So I read an article in the news only this week that parents were protesting the price of lunch at the school, instead of them maybe preparing a less expensive, more nutritious lunch for their child to carry to school. Or the article that speaks to teachers and book stores working together to unnecessarily place books on the booklist.

We also have the situation where schools are strapped for cash, and unable to provide adequate education, and when they ask for a mere $20,000 per annum ($400 per week) for a child to attend school, they are told by parents with $20,000 hairstyle and hair, or while they are protesting they are on the phone the whole time, using phone credit, that they can't afford it.

One of the reasons why I have to be objective, and applaud effort and good works, is because I want to live in Jamaica and nowhere else. And if that is something we all want to do, then we have to ensure that we are objective in our analysis, to ensure the best action for the country at all times. The generations before us have failed to take this country to prosperity, and it is time for those who are currently in leadership positions to make sure that we don't mess it up further and leave our children in a further mess. If we are to do so then we must be cognisant of the role our individual actions play in economic and social development, and act and talk accordingly.